When the Primary Is the Election
California’s jungle primary system has a way of producing anxiety where there should be clarity. Every candidate, regardless of party, runs on the same ballot, and only the top two finishers advance – which means well-funded Democrats can knock each other out before a Republican ever enters the picture. That dynamic is playing out with particular intensity in 2026, as tight races for both governor and mayor of Los Angeles force some of the state’s most recognizable political names into direct competition with one another.
The governor’s race and the Los Angeles mayoral contest are drawing the most attention, with Democrats Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and Karen Bass among the prominent figures navigating a format designed, at least in theory, to reward broad appeal over partisan loyalty.
The Candidates and What They’re Carrying
Xavier Becerra arrives at this race with federal weight behind him. He served as California’s Attorney General before joining the Biden administration as Secretary of Health and Human Services, where he managed the department through some of its most contentious post-pandemic policy fights. Returning to state politics after Washington is rarely simple, and Becerra is now competing for name recognition in a media environment that has largely moved on from the Biden era.
Tom Steyer is a different kind of candidate entirely. The billionaire philanthropist and climate activist ran for president in 2020, spending heavily before dropping out before Super Tuesday. His wealth gives him the ability to sustain a long campaign without the donor fatigue that sinks other candidates, but self-funded campaigns carry their own liabilities – voters in California have grown familiar with the pattern of rich outsiders who treat electoral politics as a portfolio move.
Karen Bass is the incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, which in a normal election cycle might be considered an advantage. But Bass took office in December 2022 and has since governed through the January 2025 wildfires that tore through Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and other communities, killing at least two dozen people and destroying thousands of structures. Her response drew criticism from multiple directions – residents frustrated by the pace of recovery, officials questioning resource allocation, and political opponents who saw an opening. Running for governor while still holding the mayor’s office adds another layer of complexity to an already difficult position.
What the Format Actually Does
The jungle primary doesn’t just reshuffle the deck – it changes what winning means. A candidate who consolidates a narrow ideological lane can advance to the general while a more broadly popular candidate splits the vote and finishes third. In a race with multiple well-known Democrats competing for similar coalition support, the math becomes genuinely unpredictable. Polling advantages can evaporate if turnout patterns shift even modestly between demographic groups.
For Los Angeles specifically, the mayoral race carries stakes beyond the usual municipal concerns. The city is still absorbing the financial and logistical weight of the wildfire recovery, and the 2028 Olympics are approaching with infrastructure and public safety questions still unresolved. Whoever emerges from the primary in that race will face those realities regardless of what happens in November.
California’s Political Culture on Display
There is something distinctly Californian about a primary race that features a former federal cabinet secretary, a climate-focused billionaire, and a sitting big-city mayor all competing for the same pool of Democratic votes. The state’s political ecosystem rewards celebrity, capital, and cause – and all three candidates carry at least one of those qualities in abundance. Whether any of them carries all three is the question the primary is designed, if imperfectly, to answer.
The governor’s race, meanwhile, sits inside a longer conversation about California’s direction after the Newsom years. Gavin Newsom, who cannot run for a third consecutive term, has spent recent months building a national profile – electoral dynamics in other states have drawn his attention as he positions himself for whatever comes next at the federal level. The question of who inherits his coalition is not rhetorical; it has direct consequences for which kind of Democratic politics governs the country’s most populous state.
Becerra, Steyer, and Bass each represent a different answer to that question. Becerra offers institutional continuity and a record built inside government structures. Steyer offers the argument that outside money and outside energy can move policy where career politicians cannot. Bass offers the complicated credibility of someone who has actually held executive power during a crisis and is asking voters to extend their trust anyway.
None of those answers is obviously right. The jungle primary is indifferent to which one is more coherent – it simply counts votes and advances two names.
The race is still being called. As results come in, the margin separating second place from third – the line between continuing and going home – may come down to precincts in corners of Los Angeles County that rarely decide anything.
